CHANGING DYNAMICS: The crowds attending the anti-protocol rallies have not been huge, but nor have they been insignificant. PICTURE: PA
"The election is a wake-up call for those who support the Union. This is not the time to have unionism fractured and weakened. It is not the time for fellow unionists to have a go at one another and it is not the time to take a chance on those who are not tried and tested." (Jeffrey Donaldson)
"We are clear and providing a rock-solid guarantee that we will never provide a stooge deputy to a Sinn Féin First Minister. TUV would unapologetically block Michelle O’Neill. If unionists want to be certain that their vote will never be used to enthrone Sinn Féin [voting] "TUV1 is their only guarantee." (Jim Allister)
"Every domocratic means available should be deployed to see the Protocol consigned to history and there should be no return to Stormont whilst the protocol-related issues remain unresolved." (Grand Orange Lodge)
"The blunt reality is, I don't know why any unionist has been running scared of a border poll - we've absolutely nothing to fear. I would have challenged Sinn Féin to one tomorrow if it was in my gift." (David Campbell, chair of the Loyalist Communities Council)
Well, there you go: pick the bones out of that lot. Which is precisely what unionist voters will have to do between and May 5th.
Them'UN's - Them And Us Approach - No Sinn Féin First Minister (Myself)
Do they opt for Doug Beattie's approach and allow hope to trump fear, or do they steer towards the DUP's line that the union is in danger and only they can protect it? Or do they go a lot further - which is what the TUV seems to be suggesting - and make sure that, in the event Sinn Féin does emerge as the largest party, there's no chance at all of a rebooted executive?
PRODUCT FEAR
The TUV reckons that the DUP and UUP would reach agreement with Sinn Féin a few months down the line
The TUV reckons - probably with some justification - that the DUP and UUP would reach agreement with Sinn Féin a few months down the line, even if that required serving as deputy first minister to Michelle O’Neill against a background in which there had a 'soft landing' resolution to the protocol. That's why, just a few days after he shared a platform with him, Jim Allister was having a pop at Jeffrey Donaldson for not ruling anything in or out when asked, on Talkback, if he would confirm that his party wouldn't serve under Michelle O’Neill. It's also why Doug Beattie was accused, on the same platform, of being a 'Lundy' and a 'traitor'.
TOGETHER WE STAND DIVIDED WE FALL
And it's why the unionist parties still supporting the anti-protocol rallies - the DUP, TUV and PUP - have found it impossible to issue a joint statement/declaration/strategy setting out what they will do once the election is over and the results are in. If the DUP is returned as the largest unionist party and represents an overall majority of unionist MLAs, then expect to see it move closer to the UUP (assuming it hasn't had a catastrophic result) to try and keep the assembly afloat.
Deep down Jim Allister knows that the DUP/UUP don't share his deep-rotted antipathy to the Belfast Agreement and mandatory coalition. He has seen them work the institutions and he knows they enjoy sort of balance-of-power numbers required to influence their decisions during and after negotiations he also knows that this really is the last personal hurrah. Maybe even the last hurrah for anti-agreement/anti-assembly unionism.
The protocol changed the dynamics across and within unionism and loyalism, particularly with the intervention of new grassroots coalitions set up and directed by a younger generation of loyalists (who I first mentioned about three years ago). The crowds attending the rallies haven't been huge, but nor have they been insignificant. That said, they have been as much anti-Good-Friday-Agreement as anti-Protocol crowds and mostly tending towards Jim Allister's worldview than Jeffrey Donaldson's or Doug Beattie's.
So, Beattie (who dropped out because he thinks the UUP's core vote isn't comfortable with aspects of the rallies) and Donaldson (who stays in because he worries that Allister's message might appeal to some sections of the DUP) will still be hoping that, while the rallies attract attention - albeit for the wrong reasons, sometimes - the TUV/loyalist coalition perspective won't attract a critical mass of unionist votes. Both men know that the protocol has unsettled huge swathes of the unionist/pro-union communities (it unsettles me), but they reckon that the unsettling doesn't and won't translate into a significant wave of votes to the TUV.
And what about those organising the rallies - at which Allister and Donaldson, along with others, are just guest speakers? I'm presuming they agree with what Jamie Bryson describes as an increasing the pressure approach to unionism's problems. I'm also presuming that, having raised their voice and made their mark, they won't be packing their bags and moving off once the election is over: irrespective of the final results.
Follow these links to find out more on this story and other subjects relevant to the opinion above: DON'T LET EVERYTHING JEFFERY AND THE DUP TELL YOU ABOUT THE BREXIT SEA BORDER AND THE PROTOCOL AND TAKE IT AS GOSPEL!
