A recent poster ref:GFA regarding the Good Friday Agreement published online by the PUL community
A majority of unionists would vote against the Good Friday Agreement if a referendum on the historic peace accord was held today.
Just one in three unionists now endorses the deal, but support for it remains strong among nationalists and Alliance voters, according to a new poll.
The Agreement was backed by a majority in both communities with a 71% yes vote in the 1998 referendum.
As its 25th anniversary approaches in April, a LucidTalk poll for the Belfast Telegraph shows 64% of people — down seven points — would back the deal now if another poll was held.
While 95% of nationalists and 96% of Alliance and Green voters would vote yes, only 35% of unionists would do the same.
Around a third of people (31%) say they’d vote no — a slight increase from the 29% who did so in 1998.
Only 3% of nationalists and 2% of Alliance and Green voters would oppose the deal, but 54% of unionists would do so.
A significant section of unionists are undecided on whether they support the Agreement. Some 11% don’t know or are unsure of how they’d vote if another referendum took place, with just 2% of nationalists and Alliance and Green voters saying the same.
A Flourish chart
While the DUP led the campaign against the Agreement in the 1998 referendum, it was backed by Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble and an estimated 80% of the party’s voters.
However, just 58% of UUP supporters would now vote for the peace deal, with 28% saying they’d oppose it and 15% unsure of how they’d vote.
Some 3,662 people took part in our online poll conducted from January 20 to 23. The sample was scientifically weighted to reflect the Northern Ireland population.
There are sharp gender divisions on the Good Friday Agreement. Almost three-quarters of women (73%) would vote yes compared to just over half (55%) of men if a referendum was held now. Almost twice as many men (40%) would vote against the Agreement as women (22%).
A Flourish chart
The over-65s are less enthusiastic for the peace accord than younger people — 59% would vote yes compared to 65% of both 45-64 and 25-44-year-olds and 64% of 18-24-year-olds.
Opposition to the Agreement increased with age. Just 25% of 18-24-year-olds would vote no compared to 31% of both 25-44-year-olds and 45-64-year-olds and 36% of over-65s.
A Flourish chart
Changing demographics mean the highest percentage of unionists is found among those of retirement age.
Signed on April 10, 1998 after extensive negotiations involving local politicians and the British and Irish governments, the Good Friday Agreement was followed by simultaneous but separate referenda in Northern Ireland and the Republic.
More than two million voters across the island registered their support for the deal, with 361,000 voting against. However, there was a significant difference in turnout on each side of the border.
In Northern Ireland, 81% of the electorate voted with almost 677,000 supporting the peace deal and 275,000 opposing it.
The result was overwhelmingly in favour of the Agreement in the Republic with more than 1.4m people (94%) supporting it and 86,000 opposing it (6%). But turnout in the south was much lower, with only 56% of people voting.
Polling was carried out online from 1pm on January 20 to 6pm on January 23, using the established LucidTalk Northern Ireland (NI) online opinion panel (14,422 members), which is balanced to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland (NI). Some 3,662 full responses were received, and these were then authenticated, audited and weighted, to a 1,499 response NI representative data-set which was used for analysis in terms of the final results.
These final data results were then weighted by age, gender, socio-economic group, previous NI voting patterns, NI constituency, NI constitutional position, political party support, and religious affiliation, to produce a robust Northern Ireland representative opinion sample. All results are accurate in terms of being NI representative to within an error of +/- 2.3% at 95% confidence.
LucidTalk is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its regulations. LucidTalk is the only NI (and Ireland)based polling and market research company which is a member of the British Polling Council.
With many thanks to the: Belfast Telegraph and Suzanne Breen for the original story.
Follow these links to find out more on this story: DUP being allowed to scatter Good Friday Agreement to the winds.
